This invention relates generally to the monitoring of machinery, and more particularly to methods and systems for mathematically estimating an equipment failure.
At least some known machinery monitoring systems, monitor machine drivers, for example, motors and turbines, or machine driven components, such as, pumps, compressors, and fans. Other known monitoring systems monitor process parameters of a process, for example, piping systems, and machine environmental conditions, such as machine vibration, machine temperature, and machine oil condition. Typically, such monitoring systems are supplied by an original equipment manufacture (OEM) that is responsible for only a portion of a facility, for example, a specific piece of equipment, and as such, the OEM only provides monitoring for equipment provided by that OEM. However, industrial facilities such as power plants, refineries, factories, and commercial facilities, such as, hospitals, high-rise buildings, resorts, and amusement parks utilize a considerable plurality of machine drivers and driven equipment dependently interconnected to form various process systems. An architect/engineer integrates such equipment for an owner or operator of the facility. Monitoring systems supplied by different OEMs communicate with external data collection and control systems, such as distributed control systems (DCS) located at sites that are remote from the monitored equipment, for example, control rooms and/or operating areas.
Typically, machine monitoring systems are primarily focused on providing operating indications and controls, trending, and/or datalogging capabilities for future reconstruction of abnormal events. However, known monitoring systems do not analyze the data to estimate when a machinery failure may occur. For example, monitoring systems collect electrical data from a motor, however, the operator must interpret the data to determine if and/or when the motor may reach a critical condition, i.e., when the machine may fail. More specifically, during operation, the operator visually analyzes the trended data to determine if the machine is trending towards a dangerous level. The operator then visually approximates when the machine will reach the dangerous level. For example, the operator may hold a ruler to a display of the trend to visualize at what point of time in the future, the machine may fail during operation.
Accordingly, estimating a time when a machine may fail, is generally determined by an operator based on the operator's visual analysis of the trending data. Thus predicting a time when a machine may fail, varies based on each specific operator's visual interpretation of the trending data.